I am an Associate Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at São Paulo State University (UNESP). I hold a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of São Paulo, and a Master's degree in International Relations from the San Tiago Dantas Program (UNESP, UNICAMP and PUC-SP). I obtained my Habilitation (or Livre-Docência) at the International Relations Institute at the University of São Paulo.
I study forced labor, political inequality, and the political economy of development, with a focus on Brazil and Latin America. Using causal inference methods and large administrative datasets, my research asks when and why states protect — or fail to protect — the most vulnerable. I am the author of Capitalism and Development: Steering Markets Toward Fairness (Cambridge University Press), and my work has appeared in American Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis, World Development, European Journal of Political Economy, and Nature.
See my research below, visit my Google Scholar profile, or find my full CV here.
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2026. Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Civitarese, Jamil. Gun Violence and the Political Economy of Forced Labor Investigations in Brazil. World Development, 204, 107416.
2026. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Civitarese, Jamil, and Dorsch, Michael T. Land Invasions and Contemporary Slavery. European Journal of Political Economy, 93, 102807.
2026. Aczel, B. et al. (including Cepaluni, Gabriel). Investigating the Analytical Robustness of the Social and Behavioural Sciences. Nature, 652, 135–142.
2025. Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Driscoll, Amanda. Do Conditional Cash Transfers Improve Intergenerational Gains in Educational Achievement? Evidence from Brazil's Bolsa Família Program. World Development, 187, 106852.
2025. Mignozzetti, Umberto, Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Freire, Danilo. Legislature Size and Welfare: Evidence from Brazil. American Journal of Political Science, 69(3), 831–846.
2022. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Dorsch, Michael T., and Kovarek, Daniel. Mobility and Policy Responses During the COVID-19 Pandemic. International Journal of Public Health, 67, 1604663.
2022. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Chewning, Taylor K., Driscoll, Amanda, and Faganello, Marco A. Conditional Cash Transfers and Child Labor. World Development, 152, 105768.
2021. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Dorsch, Michael T., and Branyiczki, Réka. Political Regimes and Deaths in the Early Stages of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Public Finance and Public Choice, 37(1), 27–53.
2020. Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Fernandes, Iuri Ferruccio. United We Stand, Divided We Fall: Coalitions in the GATT/WTO Negotiations. International Political Science Review, 43(4).
2018. Driscoll, Amanda, Cepaluni, Gabriel, Guimarães, Feliciano D. S., and Spada, Paolo. Prejudice, Strategic Discrimination, and the Electoral Connection: Evidence from a Pair of Field Experiments in Brazil. American Journal of Political Science, 62(4), 781–795. (lead article)
2016. Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Hidalgo, F. Daniel. Compulsory Voting Can Increase Political Inequality: Evidence from Brazil. Political Analysis, 24(2), 273–280.
2007. Vigevani, Tullo, and Cepaluni, Gabriel. Lula's Foreign Policy and the Quest for Autonomy through Diversification. Third World Quarterly, 28(7), 1309–1326. (An expanded version appeared in Portuguese in Contexto Internacional, 2007.)
Cepaluni, Gabriel, and Accorsi, Pedro. The Factor Endowments of Rebellion: Demography, Labor Supply, and the Internal Organization of Civil War. Working paper, 2026.
2026. Cepaluni, Gabriel. Capitalism and Development: Steering Markets Toward Fairness. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
2010. Vigevani, Tullo, and Cepaluni, Gabriel. Brazilian Foreign Policy in Changing Times: The Quest for Autonomy from Sarney to Lula. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books. (Foreword by Prof. Philippe C. Schmitter.) Portuguese editions: Editora da Unesp, São Paulo, 2012 and 2016. Chinese edition: Social Sciences Academic Press, Beijing, 2015.
2024. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Dorsch, Michael T., and Dzebo, Semir. Populism, Political Regimes, and COVID-19 Deaths. Chapter 4 in: Angelos Chryssogelos, Eliza Tanner Hawkins, Kirk A. Hawkins, Levente Littvay, and Nina Wiesehomeier (eds.), The Ideational Approach to Populism, Vol. II: Consequences and Mitigation. London: Routledge, 2024.
2019. Cepaluni, Gabriel, Mariano, Karina L. Pasquariello, and Mariano, Marcelo Passini. Preserving Domestic Autonomy: Weak Migration Laws and the Mercosur Strategy of Limited Integration. In: César Álvarez Alonso and José Ignacio Hernández (eds.), Latin American Geopolitics. London: Palgrave Macmillan, pp. 83–107.
2013. Vigevani, Tullo, and Cepaluni, Gabriel. Brazil: Global Power-To-Be? In: Ryan K. Beasley, Juliet Kaarbo, Jeffrey S. Lantis, and Michael T. Snarr (eds.), Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective: Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior, 1st ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press, pp. 265–290.
Politics and Public Policy (Graduate).
Experimental Approach to Public Policy Evaluation (Graduate).
Research Design (Undergraduate and Graduate).
Analysing the Policy Process (Undergraduate).
Foreign Policy and Regional Integration (Undergraduate).
International Trade (Undergraduate).
Introduction to International Affairs (Undergraduate).
International Negotiations (Undergraduate).
Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective (Undergraduate).
Brazilian Politics: Modern Methods and Approaches (Advanced Undergraduate/Graduate).
The Political Economy of Coercive Relations in Latin America (Advanced Undergraduate/Graduate).